October 5, 2016 | No Comments
House Republicans spent all summer sweating that Donald Trump’s chaotic campaign would cost them dearly in November, and maybe even open a path for Democrats to seize control of the chamber. But five weeks before Election Day, those fears have largely subsided: Republicans are still pegged to lose seats, but top party strategists are increasingly bullish that a cascade of defeats isn’t at hand.
There’s still time for that to change, but the telltale signs of a wave election typically surface by this point in the cycle, and it hasn’t happened yet. The GOP’s internal polling shows not one of their incumbents running behind, Republicans claim, and the generic congressional ballot — a critical early indicator of the election outcome — has inched closer to even after trending in Democrats’ favor.
“We’re in a much stronger position than anybody thought [we’d be],” said House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who boasted last week that Democrats have gone from “cocky” to “nervous” about their House prospects. “Sit down with [Democratic] leadership and compare their notes from a month ago to today: I think you’ll see a less optimistic attitude than you saw a month ago.”
The newfound optimism could vanish if Trump goes into a freefall in the final weeks of the campaign; his poor performance over the past week isn’t reflected in the GOP’s private House polling, and Democrats say Republicans are getting ahead of themselves.
“For them to say they’re not scared because of early or mid-September polling? I mean, God bless them,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Meredith Kelly. “There is plenty of time left for Hillary Clinton to pull away from Donald Trump — and for that to impact down-ballot races.”
Some Republican political advisers agree that Trump’s unpredictability and a sour electorate are still cause for heartburn.
“We’ve got way too many incumbents under 50 [percent], and way too many voters hate Washington,” said a Republican strategist working on races across the House battlefield. “You just don’t want to be an elected official right now, and we’ve got lots of incumbents in the House.”
Yet the much-feared “Trump effect” appears, at this point, to be less than once anticipated. Republicans believe that even if Trump fails to overtake Clinton, or even loses more ground, it won’t necessarily hurt them badly. Most voters appear to view the nominee as his own breed, creating a rare buffer zone for their incumbents, who in many cases are outpolling Trump.
Indeed, to the dismay of some on the left, the Clinton campaign has explicitly made that case, tagging Trump as an avatar of the so-called alt-right.
“We rarely see the down-ballot guys outperform the top of the ballot, but at this point, it looks like that’s going to happen,” said Brian Walsh, the former National Republican Congressional Committee political director who just a month ago was dreading a doomsday for the House.
Democrats are divided over what kind of election might be in store. The No. 2 House Democrat, Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland, told reporters last week that while it’s “not beyond the realm of possibility that we take back the House if there’s a wave election created, right now, we don’t see that.”
But House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) bullishly said last week that she’s “very confident that the makings of a wave are there.”
“It’s like saying, ‘Do you see a wave?’ We’re not even at the beach,” she said, arguing that it’s too early to tell.
Signs of a looming wave often are clear by this point, though. In 2010, Republicans knew they’d take back the House months before the election. RealClearPolitics’ averages of generic congressional ballot polls, virtually tied in late May of that year, started an upward climb in favor of Republicans during summer — a trend that never wavered as Election Day neared.
In 2006, Democrats led in generic congressional ballot polls by as much as 10 points to 20 points for much of the year before going on to win the House majority.
This year, however, Democrats have a smaller and more sporadic lead on the generic congressional ballot. In mid-August, after a rough July for Trump, Democrats led by 5 points. That dropped to just over 1 point in late September, and now is at about 4 percent.
That small lead essentially disappears, however, when accounting for the fact that Republicans usually outperform the generic congressional ballot by 3 points to 4 points, according to Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics.
Trende cautioned that waves can form at the last minute and catch both parties by surprise. That’s what happened during the 2014 cycle, when House Republicans grew their already historically large majority by a dozen seats.
But even that wave started building in mid-September.
“It’s not too late for a wave to form, and maybe if Trump completely imploded, we’ll see that — but as of today, it doesn’t look like the House majority is in much jeopardy for Republicans,” Trende said.
Democrats appear to be banking on a Trump collapse.
“Just because they contained Trump by Oct. 1 doesn’t mean anything if he totally lights himself on fire,” Kelly said. “House races are going to move until the very last day. The presidential [race] can change in a heart beat.”
Right now, however, the numbers just aren’t there. Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa), once believed to be an easy target for the left, has actually doubled his lead over his Democratic opponent recent weeks. An internal poll released Monday showed him 16 points ahead of challenger Monica Vernon, 52 percent to 36 percent, compared with a mid-August internal poll in which he led by just 7 points.
A late-September newspaper poll showed Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin, another vulnerable Republican, pulling ahead of challenger Emily Cain by double digits, after the two were virtually tied in a June survey. (Democrats say an internal poll just conducted by Cain’s campaign has the race tied.)
Republicans also note that Democrats have pulled spending from districts they previously said were competitive. The Pelosi-aligned House Majority PAC canceled a half-million-dollar TV ad reservation in the district of Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.).
“The battlefield we thought we would have at the beginning of the year is turning out to be smaller,” Walsh said. ““You’re still looking at the likelihood of marginal losses, partially due to redistricting … but we’re not seeing anything that looks cataclysmic.”
Democrats say there’s still time to move the numbers. The DCCC is just now starting to spend money in competitive districts, airing ads they hope will change the landscape by tying Republicans to Trump.
But they’re starting their offensive push much later than usual. As of Sept. 27, the DCCC had paid for TV ads in 15 districts, according to FEC filings. By the same date in 2014, the DCCC had aired ads in 24 districts and by that time in 2012, they’d gone up in 26 districts. The NRCC, conversely, had filed TV spots in 30 districts by that point in 2010.
Democrats also point to their own internal polling showing some GOP incumbents are in trouble. While Rep. Bob Dold (R-Ill.) told Politico he’s up in his own internal polling, his challenger Brad Schneider announced Sept. 30 he leads Dold, 46 to 41, in Democratic polling. Likewise, Democratic challenger Carol Shea-Porter said on Sept. 23 that her numbers had her up 10 points over Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.). (Republicans say Guinta led Shea-Porter in their own mid-September poll.)
Republicans, for now, are waving them off.
“I know we have competitive races, and it’s a long way to Election Day,” NRCC Chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.) said last week. “But I know from the data we’re seeing, our incumbents are in very strong shape.”
Scott Bland contributed to this report.