October 6, 2016 | No Comments
HENDERSON, Nevada — Donald Trump pledged his appeal to working class whites would put new states in play, opening an electoral path to 270 votes that ran through the Rust Belt. But with five weeks to go and new polling showing Pennsylvania and Michigan out of reach and Hillary Clinton eating into his lead in Ohio, the Republican nominee is blazing a trail across the West.
Indeed, for all his talk of being a different kind of Republican, Trump’s hopes for victory are not much different from Mitt Romney’s four years ago, or what Jeb Bush’s or Marco Rubio’s might have been: a narrow path that relies on success out West, a new national bellwether marked by a growing Hispanic population.
In recognition of the region’s electoral importance, the GOP establishment in 2013 pushed for an embrace of immigration reform. Of course, that failed and prompted a backlash from an angry conservative base that had propelled Trump, who launched his campaign by declaring Mexicans to be “rapists” and continues to punctuate his rallies with the exclamation that he will build a wall along the border.
“The path to 270 goes through all the same states as it did in 2012 and 2008,” said Katie Packer, who was Mitt Romney’s deputy campaign manager four years ago. “Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania aren’t really even swing states. The math still comes down to suburban women and Latino voters.”
Trump on Wednesday finished a three-day swing through Colorado, Arizona and Nevada, drawing large crowds of mostly white voters. On Monday, Trump rallied up and down Colorado’s Front Range. Before a raucous crowd of 7,000 people inside an arena in Loveland, he drew loud cheers when he promised he would win the state — as he did before 2,000 people in Pueblo, a rundown, post-industrial town and longtime Democratic stronghold where economic anxieties are pushing voters toward Trump.
But the bluster doesn’t erase what’s an increasingly dim political reality in Colorado. And indeed, when this week’s three-day Western swing was planned late last month, the West seemed far more winnable for Trump than it does after a bad first debate and subsequent days of self-destructive behavior.
Two post-debate polls of likely Colorado voters this week showed Clinton leading Trump by 11 points overall—and by 17 points with voters in the state’s two traditional swing counties, Arapahoe and Jefferson, which include the bulk of the population-heavy Denver suburbs. “This is her high water mark right now,” said a GOP operative whose private polling showed Clinton at her highest point all year.
In Arizona, which has voted for one Democratic presidential candidate since 1952, Trump’s lead is down to less than two points, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Trump’s decision to sandwich a rally in Prescott — the reddest part of the state — in between longer swings through Nevada and Colorado served as an indisputable sign that the GOP nominee is on the defensive in what’s normally not considered to be a swing state, and fighting uphill battles in those that are.
And in Nevada, where Trump held two rallies Wednesday, the three polls taken following last week’s first debate all showed Clinton ahead — one, by as much as six points. At his evening rally in Reno, Trump mocked politicians for mispronouncing “Nevada” while he was botching the pronunciation himself.
“Evidence is beginning to pile up to indicate that her ground game is hitting its goals so Trump isn’t going to have any margin for error,” said Packer, who ran an anti-Trump super PAC during the primaries in an effort to eventually derail the eventual nominee. “Unfortunately his campaign is a constant stream of errors. We knew from day one that his record and rhetoric with Latinos was going to make him toxic with that voting group. That’s why we sent up the warning signs back in the spring.”
Barring a bad debate or major mistake by Hillary Clinton, Trump at this point may no longer control his own electoral destiny, which is more likely to be determined in these Western states — and other battlegrounds beyond — by Clinton’s ability to motivate and turn out the Obama coalition and whether the Libertarian nominee, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, can play spoiler in his home state and Colorado.
Clinton’s decisive debate performance last Monday appears to have solidified her base and brought a good chunk of previously undecided Colorado voters into her camp. But Johnson is continuing to poll close to the 10 percent mark, which concerns Clinton operatives in the state.
“There has been almost an edge of panic in the voice of longtime Democratic operatives in the state recognizing that Hillary Clinton is not drawing the kid of enthusiastic support from millennials, Hispanics, African-Americans and even women. If these folks stay home, they’re in real trouble,” said Ryan Call, the former Colorado GOP chairman.
Clinton’s campaign pulled its ads off Colorado’s television airwaves back in late August, confident that Trump couldn’t compete in a state that has been trending blue thanks to its growing Hispanic population — roughly 15 percent of the voters in 2012 — and an influx of educated, urbane millennials. But in mid-September, Trump and Clinton appeared to be in a virtual tie as younger voters lukewarm on both candidates flocked to the pro-marijuana Libertarian candidate, Johnson.
Based on public and private polling, Trump is consistently about 10 points lower than Romney was with millennials at the same point in 2012, but Clinton is consistently polling about 25 points lower than Obama was with the same group.
“Millennial voters are rejecting both major parties at an unprecedented rate in Colorado, and it’s hurting Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump,” said Kelly Maher, a GOP operative in the state.
Although Clinton’s debate performance has eased some concerns, her Colorado-based campaign staffers are privately frustrated that Brooklyn sees the state as a lower priority for resources. But a high-ranking Clinton campaign official did concede privately that New Mexico — specifically, Johnson’s high levels of support there — is a growing concern.
Advisers in Denver have requested top surrogates to help turn out the base, but so far, only Tim Kaine — not Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders or either of the Obamas — has a Colorado trip on his schedule. “Millennials are the target and we could use a little more help than Kaine, who doesn’t exactly thrill the younger voters,” one said.
More than anything else, antipathy to Trump is what’s driving Clinton’s vote in Colorado. In a recent survey of likely voters there, 40 percent of her supporters said they were backing Clinton “mainly to oppose Donald Trump,” while 36 percent said they were doing so “mainly because I like Hillary Clinton.”
That same enthusiasm gap between Clinton’s supporters and Trump’s, 6,000 of whom turned out here Wednesday afternoon for another raucous rally, is making Nevada one of the closer contests on the board, a surprise considering President Barack Obama’s double-digit win here four years ago and Trump’s toxicity with Hispanic voters, who account for almost 30 percent of the state’s population.
Operatives on the ground here believe that’s because of Trump’s potential crossover appeal with white males and the union members who abound here — and a function of Clinton’s struggles to motivate the so-called Obama coalition.
“I expect Trump being helped in Nevada by the fact he’s an employer there,” said Stuart Stevens, the GOP strategist who guided Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign and recalled their tarmac press conference in Las Vegas to highlight Trump’s endorsement. “We always saw Trump as a business guy with a local business who was going to help Romney.”
In a state that’s been affected by rising healthcare premiums due to Obamacare and by a prolonged housing crisis often blamed on whoever is in the White House, “Trump has a larger growth opportunity with white Democratic men than she does with any group,” according to one prominent GOP strategist here who spoke on background. “Of course, his propensity to blow it is also larger than Clinton’s. But the math is there if he can run a competent campaign.”
Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who has long worked with Sen. Harry Reid, attributes Trump’s competitiveness to Nevada’s less educated population and the hardships many have endured. But looking at the most recent polling, he’s predicting a Clinton win here.
“Nevada’s white population makes it more like Ohio than, say, Colorado,” he said. “That college education seems to be a huge dividing line. It always has been, but it’s grown to huge proportions in this election.”
Public and private polls of likely Nevada voters taken following last Monday’s first Trump-Clinton debate mirror other national and swing state surveys, showing Clinton opening up a lead of between one and six points.
“Trump certainly can win Nevada,” said Adam Jones, the state director for Americans For Prosperity, whose impressive ground operation is doing much of the voter registration work that Trump’s campaign has not. “It’s one of those things where everything has to go right and he has to get a little lucky, too. It’s not easy for a Republican to win statewide in Nevada the way voter registration has been trending over last 16 years. A lot of things have to go right.”
Most important, Trump has to turn in a stronger performance in Sunday’s debate and in the final showdown, which will take place Nov. 19 in Las Vegas, if he hopes to change the trajectory of the race — especially given Clinton’s organizational advantage.