September 30, 2016 | No Comments
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 4 points in the first likely Florida voter poll taken after their first presidential debate, which the Democrat was widely credited with winning.
Clinton’s 46-42 percent lead over Trump in the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey only represents a 2-point shift in her favor since the last time the Jacksonville-based firm surveyed the race in August. The poll’s error margin is 3.5 points.
“Despite small shifts that have given Clinton a post-debate bump, the race is still very competitive and the outcome will hinge on where and among whom voter turnout is higher,” Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon’s pollster, wrote in a memo.
The bottom line: the older and whiter the electorate, the better Trump does.
The third-party candidates are barely a factor, with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 7 percent support and Jill Stein at 1 percent; 4 are undecided.
Clinton is pulling slightly more support from Democrats (among whom she leads Trump 83-10 percent) than Trump does from Republicans (among whom he is ahead of her by 77-13 percent). One potentially troubling sign for Clinton: Trump beats her among independent voters by 41-33 percent.
Both major candidates are disliked. But Trump is disliked more. Only 31 percent have a favorable opinion of him while 39 percent view Clinton favorably; 53 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Trump and 47 percent don’t like her.
Put another way: Trump’s net approval rating is -22. Hers is -8.
The gender gap plays in Clinton’s favor. Women back her by an 18-point margin while his advantage among men is 12 points. And minorities continue to give the Democrat strong support, with blacks backing her 92-1 percent and Hispanics 64-29 percent.
But whites, 67 percent of the poll’s 820 self-identified likely voters, favor Trump by 53-33 percent. The older voters get, the more likely they are to support Trump, who draws his biggest margins from voters older than 65. He leads Clinton by 7 among voters of this age group.
Trump’s strongest support is in North and Southwest Florida. Clinton’s in Southeast Florida. That makes the central band of the state once again the fulcrum upon which the election results will probably turn. If Trump loses Florida, he has almost no chance of getting to the White House.
“In the generally decisive I-4 corridor, Clinton currently has a slight advantage,” Coker wrote. “She now has a 47%-40% in the swing Tampa Bay area, while Trump only leads 46%-43% in more Republican leaning Central Florida.”