October 4, 2016 | No Comments
A new poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points in Pennsylvania — a crucial, vote-rich state that increasingly looks like a linchpin to Clinton’s Electoral College strategy.
Clinton leads Trump, 50 percent to 40 percent, in the new Monmouth University poll. Five percent of likely voters are backing Libertarian Gary Johnson, 2 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein and 2 percent are undecided.
One key factor contributing to Clinton’s lead: She is winning more Democrats (90 percent) than Trump is winning Republicans (75 percent).
The two candidates are also running neck-and-neck with white voters: 46 percent for Clinton, and 45 percent for Trump. White female voters are now tilting strongly toward Clinton, 55 percent to 35 percent. Trump maintains a strong lead with white men, 57 percent to 35 percent.
Clinton is campaigning in Pennsylvania on Tuesday with two events on the schedule: one in the Philadelphia suburbs, and another in Harrisburg. Clinton leads Trump in the seven congressional districts in and around Philadelphia by a more-than-two-to-one margin: 62 percent to 30 percent.
Clinton’s lead in the Monmouth survey is larger than her 4-point advantage in a Quinnipiac University poll released on Monday. The Monmouth survey is a little more recent: It was conducted last Friday through Monday, while the Quinnipiac poll was conducted last Tuesday through Sunday.
It’s the latest in a series of swing-state polls showing good news for Clinton in the wake of last week’s first presidential debate. Since the debate, Clinton has opened up leads in key states where the race had closed in recent weeks, including Colorado, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. That was reinforced Tuesday by an Elon University poll giving Clinton a 6-point lead in North Carolina.
There is one bright spot for Republicans: Despite Clinton’s lead at the top of the ticket, the Monmouth poll shows GOP Sen. Pat Toomey tied with his Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty at 46 percent apiece. Three percent of likely voters say they will support Edward Clifford, the Libertarian candidate, and another 5 percent are undecided.
According to unreleased crosstabs provided to POLITICO, Toomey is winning 90 percent of Trump voters, but McGinty is only holding onto 82 percent of Clinton voters (11 percent of Clinton voters are supporting Toomey). Toomey also runs stronger than McGinty among undecided voters and those supporting third-party candidates.
The previous Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania, back in August, showed Clinton ahead by 8 points, and McGinty leading by 4 points.
The Monmouth poll surveyed 402 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.