October 3, 2016 | No Comments
The United States announced Monday it is cutting off one-on-one talks with Russia over attempts to establish a cease-fire in Syria. It’s an extraordinary move that comes days after a truce collapsed in ugly bloodshed, but it does little to resolve the issue of how to stop the violence in Syria, and it adds to the growing tensions between Moscow and Washington over a range of issues.
“This is not a decision that was taken lightly,” State Department spokesman John Kirby said in a statement. “The United States spared no effort in negotiating and attempting to implement an arrangement with Russia aimed at reducing violence, providing unhindered humanitarian access, and degrading terrorist organizations operating in Syria, including [the Islamic State] and Al Qaeda in Syria. Unfortunately, Russia failed to live up to its own commitments — including its obligations under international humanitarian law and [the United Nations] — and was also either unwilling or unable to ensure Syrian regime adherence to the arrangements to which Moscow agreed.”
The decision to end the bilateral talks comes after growing criticism of the Obama administration, and particularly Secretary of State John Kerry, for pursuing seemingly futile diplomatic efforts with the Russians despite the ongoing fighting in Syria. Kerry had threatened to cut off the talks last week.
But it was not immediately clear how following through on his threat would end the violence faster. And in a sign of the high stakes involved, Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier on Monday suspended a 16-year-old agreement with the U.S. that bound the two sides to get rid of extra plutonium that was supposed to be used for nuclear weapons.
According to media accounts, Putin’s decree suspending the agreement cited “unfriendly actions” by the U.S. That was a possible reference to the threat to stop the Syria talks, but it also comes in the wake of Russia-U.S. disagreements on Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and alleged Russian hacking of American political entities.
Moscow is militarily backing the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad — its closest ally in the Middle East — as it tries to destroy a rebellion that began more than five years ago. The conflict has since killed around half a million people by some estimates, and it has drawn in a number of terrorist organizations.
State Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau said Monday that the U.S. will continue to pursue a cease-fire using multilateral negotiations that involve the Russians, but she declined to get into specifics about the options being considered.
“Our position on Assad has not changed,” she said. “We believe that Assad has lost legitimacy to lead Syria.”
President Barack Obama has refused to engage U.S. troops in combat against Assad’s forces. The lack of a military threat from the United States, critics say, has made it difficult for Kerry to exercise any leverage in trying to convince Russia (and by definition the Assad government) to stop the fighting and pursue a politically negotiated peace settlement.
Randa Slim, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, noted that France is pushing the idea of a resolution at the United Nations to try to bring calm to the northern city of Aleppo, which in recent days has witnessed some of the Syria’s worst fighting yet, including repeated bombings of civilian hospitals.
“That will take some time and give the Obama administration time to mull over options,” she said. “They can only afford zero-risk options at this point in the U.S. election cycle. Such options are never available in any violent conflict and least of all in Syria given the multiplicity of actors on the ground.”
It’s also possible that Assad, who is accused of continuing to use chemical weapons even after turning over much of his stockpile to the international community, might take an action so atrocious that Russia will feel compelled to support a cease-fire. But it’s hard to see Putin making any concessions when he sees his side winning.
A cease-fire reached in September collapsed after less than two weeks after two high-profile incidents: A mistaken airstrike on Syrian troops by the Pentagon, which was trying to hit Islamic State fighters; and airstrikes either by the Russians or the Syrians on a humanitarian aid convoy.
Recently, the U.S. even offered to share intelligence with Russia and cooperate on airstrikes against terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State. But Kirby’s statement on Monday indicated that effort was also being sidelined.
“The U.S. will also withdraw personnel that had been dispatched in anticipation of the possible establishment of the Joint Implementation Center,” Kirby said in reference to the initiative. He added, however, that U.S. forces advising local forces battling the Islamic State jihadists in Syria and Iraq would continue to coordinate with Russia to avoid unwanted military entanglements — so-called de-confliction.